Shutdown Update: What About Economic Stats?
| When the government shuts down, so do several agencies that put out the economic reports the Fed looks at when setting interest rates.
In fact, the delayed September Consumer Price Index report, which was released on October 24, was the first major federal economic report since the shutdown began on October 1. But as Underdog said, “There’s no need to fear,” the alternative stats are here! Here are a few to become familiar with: The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcaster provides real-time estimates of consumer inflation, utilizing data such as daily oil prices and weekly gas prices. Truflation is an index compiled from over 30 data sources and millions of real-time prices, covering 12 consumer spending categories, including housing and food. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow provides a real-time estimate of Gross Domestic Product for the current quarter by analyzing the same data as the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which publishes the official number. ADP’s National Employment Report looks at job creation and annual pay changes based on payroll data of over 26 million employees. |
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| We all hope the federal government shutdown ends soon, but in the meantime, we don’t have to worry that Jerome Powell and the Fed are starved for information. They have plenty of alternative information sources to review to assess the economy’s health.
And perhaps the Fed might find that the alternative stats provide more insights than the originals! |
