What does the bond market know that the Fed isn’t telling us? The Fed sees short-term interest rates over 5 percent, but the bond market says that’s too high, expecting that short-term rates will top out at 4.5% in 2023. Who’s right?
If you have a balance on a credit card or an adjustable rate mortgage, you might be noticing changes in your payments. Higher interest rates are starting to ripple through the personal finance landscape, and it doesn’t look like that trend will change anytime soon.
The Federal Reserve has indicated it plans to keep raising short-term interest rates to help manage inflation, which is at its highest level in 40 years. You’re likely seeing the effects of inflation when buying gas or groceries, and you’ll notice it if you are shopping for a new or used car.
The Federal Reserve’s job is to control inflation. By raising interest rates, the Fed hopes to slow spending, bringing down consumer prices.
Time will tell whether higher interest rates will prompt us to consider changes to your portfolio. Remember, your overall strategy considers that there will be transition periods in the economy.
In the meantime, you may want to look at I Bonds, which are issued by the U.S. government and earn a fixed interest rate plus a variable interest inflation rate that’s adjusted twice a year. I Bonds have certain purchase limits, restrictions, and tax treatments, so they generally play a limited role in your financial picture.
If you have any questions about inflation or interest rates, please reach out. We’re always here to help put things into perspective.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has made the Fed’s interest rate decision a little more complicated.
The Fed appears set to raise interest rates by 0.25% at its March meeting. Up until recently, there was talk by Fed officials that the economy needed a 0.5% bump to help manage inflation.
Energy prices have been rising since Russia began to assemble forces at the Ukraine border. As prices rise, consumer discretionary spending trends lower as businesses take on higher costs. (Remember, consumer spending accounts for a big chunk of our overall economy.)
Higher energy prices, higher commodity prices, and the prospect of slower economic growth due to lower spending place the Fed in a bit of a pickle; the inflationary impact of these factors could be considerable.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress that he still sees interest rate hikes ahead but acknowledges that geopolitical events have interjected uncertainty into the Fed’s outlook.
I work with a team of professionals who monitor the Fed and help me interpret its signals about the economy. If you’re feeling a bit unsettled, please reach out. Some think that it’s best to be proactive at times like this. We can discuss your thoughts and compare them with your overall strategy.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.