|If you’re a fan of Warren Buffett, you’ll recognize this quote: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
In recent weeks, the investing outlook has become a bit murky, which has led some people to let their emotions get the best of them.
As you can see from the accompanying chart, fear—almost extreme fear—has become the driving force for investment decisions as the Fed talks tough about “higher for longer” with interest rates and the price of oil flirts with $100 a barrel.
|So, is it time to be fearful, or are the markets just moving through another cycle? That’s difficult to determine, but you don’t have to look very far if you’re looking for reasons to be scared.
A recent CNBC survey of 300 money managers found that 61% believe the stock market’s gains this year can be attributed to a “bear market rally,” and 41% expect a recession by mid-2024.
This leads me to another one of my favorite Wall Street expressions: “Bull markets climb a wall of worry.”
Let people be fearful. Let them worry about what’s next. At times like this, focus on your investment strategy that reflects your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. We anticipated there would be some bumps along the way.
|1. CNBC.com, September 27, 2023. “Investors see 2023 gain as a bear market bounce and expect a recession next year, CNBC survey shows.”
|Rising recession fears and uncertainty in the bond and currency markets sent stocks to new 2022 lows last week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.92%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slumped 2.91%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 2.69%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.94%.1,2,3
A Tumultuous Week
U.S. stocks were under pressure all week due to recession concerns and unsettled trading in the bond and currency markets. This stress followed economic steps out of the U.K. During the previous week, the Bank of England (BOE) raised interest rates, and its prime minister announced unfunded tax cuts that the markets interpreted as inflationary.
U.S. bond yields rose early last week, sending stocks lower until Wednesday’s rally following news that the BOE would buy U.K. government bonds. U.S. stocks resumed their descent the following two days to close out a disappointing week, month, and third quarter.
The Bank Of England Acts
Global bond and currency markets have been volatile recently due to global central bankers raising interest rates to combat inflation. Developments in the U.K. took center stage last week when the BOE announced it would be buying long-dated U.K. government bonds. Upending the financial markets was the previous week’s announcement of tax cuts by the country’s new prime minister, a step many investors viewed as counterproductive to the BOE’s inflation-fighting efforts.
The BOE’s decision to begin temporary purchases of government bonds was well-received by capital markets, sending U.K. bond yields lower and boosting U.K. stock prices in the immediate aftermath.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.
Tuesday: Factory Orders. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index.
Thursday: Jobless Claims.
Friday: Employment Situation.
Source: Econoday, September 30, 2022
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Wednesday: Lamb Weston (LW).
Thursday: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), McCormick & Company, Inc. (MKC), Conagra Brands (CAG).
Source: Zacks, September 30, 2022
|“The trust of the innocent is the liar’s most useful tool.”
– Stephen King
With Shared Custody, Taxes Can Get Complicated
If you have a legal agreement with your child’s other parent regarding custody, you likely have questions about claiming the child on your tax return and what credits (if any) for which you are eligible.
It may help if you research the Child Tax Credit as well. The parent who claimed the Child Tax Credit for a qualifying child the previous year may have received the advance child tax credit payments the following year. That means that “an eligible parent who did not receive advance payments for a qualifying child will be able to claim the full amount of the child tax credit for that child on a 2022 tax return even if the other parent received advance child tax credit payments.”
* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Tip adapted from IRS.gov4
Sneak In More Veggies With Mashed Cauliflower
Mashed potatoes are a classic side at any meal, but they can be calorie-dense and don’t provide as much nutritional benefit as other veggies. If you want a tasty and easy way to incorporate more veggies into your meals this year, try this simple mashed cauliflower recipe:
Tip adapted from Downshiftology5
|Seven people stand in a square room which measures 30′ x 30′. Each one can see the entire room and everyone in it without making any physical movement (aside from eye movement). Where inside this room can you place an apple so that all but one person can see it?
Last week’s riddle: Alexandra’s mom had four children. The first one was named May, the second was named June, and the third was named August. What was the fourth child’s name? Riddle Answer: Alexandra
|Kirkjufell Mountain, Reykjavík, Iceland
Footnotes And Sources
2. The Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2022
4. IRS.gov, February 23, 2022
5. Downshiftology.com, June 1, 2022
|Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.
It’s natural to think “defense” during a bearish market season. But why not mix in some “offense” with your defense? Here are three moves we can discuss together that may be helpful during the current market downturn.
Invest Your Excess Cash: If you have excess cash earmarked for a long-term goal (retirement or college, for example), a downturn may present an opportunity. Over the last three years, the Standard & Poor’s 500 compounded annual growth rate was 9%. Even with all the pandemic-related volatility, that’s still shy of its historical average.1
Consider Series I Savings Bonds: With inflation at 40-year highs, you might consider some fresh ideas for investing. I Bonds pay a rate of return plus inflation protection and are backed by the U.S. government. You can visit TreasuryDirect.gov to open a free account (as always, reach out if you have any questions).
Take a Look at Taxes: Each year, taxpayers can deduct up to $3,000 in realized losses. If your losses exceed $3,000, you may be able to carry them forward into future years. Make sure to speak with your tax professional before making any decisions.
I’m confident we’ll see a brighter economic picture before too long. In the meantime, it’s a shrewd move to find ways to better your position, and I’m always available to help you think it through.
1. Yahoo Finance showed the S&P 500 at 3020.97 on June 24, 2019, and 3,911.74 on June 24, 2022. Past performance does not guarantee future results, individuals can’t invest directly in an index, and the return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.
|If you’re concerned about today’s market volatility, you might take some comfort from one of my favorite quotes by Warren Buffett.
“I would tell them don’t watch the market closely,” said the Oracle of Omaha.
Buffett’s quote was from 2016 when the markets were wrestling with Brexit, China’s economy, and, coincidentally, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
Fast forward to 2022, and rising bond yields, Federal Reserve uncertainty, and escalating tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border all have taken turns rattling the markets.
Markets move in cycles, but after a period of solid performance like 2021, it’s easy to forget that pullbacks, corrections, and even bear markets happen from time to time. Some market watchers would even suggest down cycles are healthy in the long run.
But if you find yourself thinking, “this time, it’s different,” we should talk. Downtrends can be unnerving, and sometimes, they may cause you to rethink how you feel about market risk.
|The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.